San Francisco, CA
October 20-23, 2013
Robert J Pliska, CRE, CPA
The following represents an assortment of helpful comments as heard by the author, a CRE, from the many various quality speakers at the Counselors of Real Estate 2013 Annual Convention held at the Ritz-Carlton, San Francisco, California from October 20 to October 23, 2013. For further information and/or membership, see the Counselors of Real Estate web site – www.cre.org.
“Banks are poised to significantly expand lending” ~ Gary Palmer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
“Interest rates have to go up – be prepared” ~ Ken Rosen, Chairman of Rosen Consulting Group, Chairman of Real Estate and Urban Economics and Professor Emeritus of Business at the University of California
“Many positive factors – private sector job growth, strong auto sales, very low interest rates, global monetary easing, improved for sale housing market, energy independence” ~ Ken Rosen
“Real GDP Growth – 2013 – 1.3%” ~ Ken Rosen
“7.4 million jobs gained back from the 8.8 million jobs lost” ~ Ken Rosen
“Fed – too loose, too long” ~ Ken Rosen
“Technology cutting the need for people in retail” ~ Ken Rosen
“Abnormally low interest rates – can shoot us in the foot” ~ Ken Rosen
“Prime beneficiary of low interest rates – the government” ~ Ken Rosen
“Problem – politics runs the country” ~ Ken Rosen
“Interest rates projected to go up in 2013 by .1% and 2014 by .5%” ~ Ken Rosen
“Current conditions – little new construction, modest demand recovery, high investment demand for stabilized properties, cap rates at all-time low – pushed by low interest rates” ~ Ken Rosen
“Office – 50 year low in new construction, vacancy rates falling slowly” ~ Ken Rosen
“U. S. single family starts – recovery ` has begun, affordability somewhat down, first time buyers down, foreclosures coming down, prices increasing” ~ Ken Rosen
“75% of the jobs still being created in the suburbs” ~ Ken Rosen
“This downturn is not driven by oversupply. The forecast for fundamentals strong” – Andrew McCulloch, Managing Director, Green Street Associates
“Risks a multi-dimensional concept – capital, credit, financial, regulatory, liquidity, portfolio” ~ Sally Gordon, Managing Director, BlackRock
“Manage and investigate risk, not necessarily eliminate it” ~ Sally Gordon
“Technology changing office” ~ Darla Longo, Vice Chairman, CBRE
“Warehousing distribution – not yet played out” ~ Darla Longo
“40% of knowledge workers will have abandoned or removed their desk telephones by 2013” ~ Marty Barkan, CRE, First VP, CBRE
“Rise of millenials in the workforce” ~ Marty Barkan
“Office space per worker is shrinking” ~ Marty Barkan
“Bond rates are a powerful and significant explanation of cap rate” ~ Peter Korpacz, CRE, President, Korpacz Realty Associates
“Interest rates will normalize in 2016” ~ Eileen Marrinan, CRE, Research Director, Grosvenor Americas
“Real estate fundamentals will continue to improve” ~ Eileen Marrinan
“Capital will continue to flow into real estate” ~ Eileen Marrinan
“The speed and timing for Fed unwinding of monetary policy will be critical” ~ Eileen Marrinan